Game Time Data
March Madness Tested
Here's how the GTD method performed in past March Madness tournaments relative to other professional ranking systems. All numbers shown to the right of Season and Tournament Round are the percentage of tournament games correct.
Working backwards, the NEFF is the net efficiency. It's a ranking system based solely on this stat. Whichever team has the larger net efficiency is the higher ranked team. This is included as a benchmark model, since net efficiency is widely accepted as a statistic that represents a team's ability. As you'll see below, net efficiency is a decent round 1 system, but fails to distinguish well in subsequent rounds.
AP is Associated Press and USA is USA Today.
POM, MAS, and SAG are for Ken Pomeroy, Ken Massey, and Jeff Sagarin, respectively - all legends in the basketball ratings world.
Filter by season:
Season | Tournament Round | GTD | POM | MAS | SAG | AP | USA | NEFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2018 | 1 | 0.8125 | 0.75 | 0.78125 | 0.71875 | 0.625 | 0.65625 | 0.65625 |
2018 | 2 | 0.5625 | 0.625 | 0.6875 | 0.6875 | 0.5625 | 0.625 | 0.5625 |
2018 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.625 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.625 |
2018 | 4 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
2018 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2018 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2017 | 1 | 0.84375 | 0.8125 | 0.8125 | 0.84375 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.78125 |
2017 | 2 | 0.6875 | 0.625 | 0.6875 | 0.6875 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.4375 |
2017 | 3 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.5 |
2017 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
2017 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2017 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2016 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.6875 | 0.6875 | 0.5 | 0.53125 | 0.78125 |
2016 | 2 | 0.875 | 0.75 | 0.8125 | 0.875 | 0.6875 | 0.75 | 0.625 |
2016 | 3 | 0.875 | 0.75 | 0.875 | 0.875 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.625 |
2016 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.5 |
2016 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
2016 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
2015 | 1 | 0.8125 | 0.8125 | 0.78125 | 0.8125 | 0.65625 | 0.6875 | 0.75 |
2015 | 2 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.6875 | 0.8125 | 0.5625 | 0.5625 | 0.6875 |
2015 | 3 | 0.75 | 0.875 | 0.875 | 0.875 | 0.875 | 0.875 | 0.875 |
2015 | 4 | 0.75 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.25 |
2015 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
2015 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014 | 1 | 0.84375 | 0.8125 | 0.71875 | 0.75 | 0.59375 | 0.59375 | 0.8125 |
2014 | 2 | 0.6875 | 0.6875 | 0.6875 | 0.6875 | 0.625 | 0.625 | 0.5 |
2014 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.375 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.625 |
2014 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
2014 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2014 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |